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In recent years, Bayesianism has emerged as a powerful and widely influential framework for understanding belief and reasoning. Its principles are now applied across a diverse array of fields, from philosophy to artificial intelligence and cognitive science. But what exactly is Bayesian epistemology?
This seminar provides an introduction to the core tenets of Bayesian Epistemology, guided by Michael Titelbaum's "Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology." The course is designed for mid to late-stage Bachelor's and Master's students with an interest in epistemology, philosophy of science, or formal methods in philosophy.
We will begin by exploring the central concept of 'credence' - the idea that our confidence in a proposition can be represented numerically.From there, we will delve into the mathematical heart of Bayesianism: the probability axioms. We will unpack how these axioms provide a normative framework for rational belief. A key focus of the seminar will be on the dynamics of belief change. We will investigate how a rational agent should update their beliefs in light of new evidence, a process governed by the elegant and powerful rule of Conditionalization. We will also examine the role of 'priors' - our initial degrees of belief - and the ongoing philosophical debates surrounding their justification.
Throughout the course, we will engage with puzzles and paradoxes that have challenged and refined Bayesian thought, such as the infamous Monty Hall problem and the Simpson's paradox. By the end of the seminar, you will have a firm grasp of the key concepts of Bayesian epistemology, be able to apply these concepts to problems, and be ready to engage with more advanced topics in the field. Sign up to find out what all the craze about Bayes is really about!